Trust & Transparency
Performance & Backtesting
Real numbers, honest context, and what they mean for you as a trader. We do not publish inflated backtest results.
Note: The figures below are from internal backtests on M15/H1 data from 2022–2024 across EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, and AUDUSD using ICMarkets historical tick data. They include spread (1.2 pips EURUSD average), $3.50 round-turn commission per lot, and 1–2 pip modelled slippage. Live results are being collected and will be published here as a verified track record builds up.
Backtest Summary (2022 – 2024)
Win Rate
54–58%
Varies by pair and year
Profit Factor
1.6–1.9
Net profit / gross loss
Max Drawdown
12.4%
Worst peak-to-trough
Avg R:R
2.1 : 1
Average across all trades
Trades Tested
~1,840
Over 3 years, 4 pairs
Annual Return
38–62%
Risk 1% per trade
Breakdown by pair
What These Numbers Mean
Win Rate: 54–58%
This means the bot loses roughly 42–46% of its trades. That is intentional — the strategy does not need a high win rate because the average winner is 2× larger than the average loser. A 55% win rate with a 2:1 R:R produces solid positive expectancy.
Profit Factor: 1.6–1.9
Profit factor = gross profit ÷ gross loss. A PF of 1.0 means breakeven. A PF of 1.7 means for every $1 lost, $1.70 was made. Professional hedge funds often target PF 1.3–1.8 on systematic strategies.
Max Drawdown: 12.4%
This is the worst equity decline from peak to trough during the 3-year test. It occurred during the high-volatility period of 2022 (Fed rate hike cycle). The bot's hard daily loss limit and drawdown cap (configurable, default 10%) are designed to cut exposure before drawdown reaches this level in live trading.
Annual Return: 38–62%
At 1% risk per trade. This varies significantly year to year — 2022 was the hardest year (38%), 2023 was the strongest (62%). Do not plan around the best year. Plan around the worst.
Backtest Conditions
Live Trading Results
Live verified results are currently being collected. We are building a track record on a real account with third-party verification (Myfxbook). We will publish the link here once at least 90 days of consistent data is available.
We deliberately do not publish cherry-picked live screenshots. A single month of good results tells you very little. A 3–6 month verified record with drawdown data tells you everything.
Why no live results yet?
RegimeTrader is in early release. Backtests are rigorous and include all costs, but live market performance always differs from backtests — execution quality, broker conditions, and real slippage vary. We would rather be honest about this than show you a 3-week equity curve and call it a track record.
Tip: The best way to validate the strategy for your own setup is to run it on a demo account for 30–60 days before going live. All features work identically on demo accounts.
What We Will Never Promise
"Guaranteed profit" — no trading system guarantees profit. Markets change.
"90%+ win rate" — high win rates usually mean small wins and catastrophic losses. Our 55% win rate with 2:1 R:R is sustainable.
"Turn $100 into $10,000 fast" — compounding at 50% per year turns $100 into $506 in 3 years. Realistic, not a lottery.
"No risk" — every trade carries risk of loss. Every automated system can have losing streaks.
Steady, compounding growth at controlled risk
Transparent numbers with costs included
A system that stops when conditions are unfavourable
Risk management that protects capital first, profits second
See the FAQ for strategy details, or Risk Management for how the bot protects your capital on every trade.